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Big British Deployment Suggests an Iraq war 'within weeks'

Big British Deployment Suggests an Iraq war
Britain's decision to deploy nearly a quarter of its army to the Gulf means war on Iraq is now a question of when, not if, and that action is likely within weeks, experts said."It looks very much like the government has come to the judgement that it is significantly more likely than not that war is going to be launched from the end of February," retired British air marshal Timothy Garden told AFP.

In a Tuesday statement to the House of Commons, Defense Secretary Geoff Hoon said Monday nearly 30,000 British troops would be going to the Gulf region -- surprising analysts, who expected the force to be much smaller.

The deployment includes some 3,000 commandos, the 7th Armoured Brigade -- nicknamed the "Desert Rats" with 120 Challenger 2 tanks plus armoured personnel carriers, and the 16 Air Assault Brigade.Britain has already sent 15 warships to the eastern Mediterranean, including the aircraft carrier Ark Royal, which could all sail through the Suez Canal to the Gulf on a moment's notice.

"The clock starts ticking once you deploy" a force of this size, said Garden, a professor in the war studies department at King's College in London.He added that such a contingent -- adding to an American deployment of some 170,000 military personnel -- could be kept in the Gulf for a maximum of six months.

"If you cannot sustain that level of forces indefinitely, then you either go to war, or you scale down the number of people you have got out there," Garden said.

"And it's politically unfeasible to scale down unless there's a dramatic change in behaviour by Iraq," which is accused by the United States and Britain of refusing to surrender weapons of mass destruction.

Alex Ashbourne, of London-based defence consultants Ashbourne-Beaver Associates, told AFP she was surprised at the numbers deployed"It indicates a more aggressive purpose.

As a percentage of British armed forces, we are undertaking a serious commitment," she said."But it shows it's got to be a short commitment.

A force of this size is not sustainable for a long time," she added."There are not enough soldiers to replace" those "in theatre" because of the British army's commitment to hotspots such as Northern Ireland and Afghanistan.

"If something is going to happen, it's got to happen soon," Ashbourne said.

"We cannot have such huge numbers of forces sitting around in the Gulf just kicking their heels.""I think it suggests (military action) before summer rather than after summer.

And I would say the beginning of March" looks like the most likely date."Asked if the momentum for war was unstoppable now, Ashbourne said: "It seems clear that we are talking when, not if".Christopher Langton, head of the defence analysis department at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said: "This is a significant British force, and it's a major undertaking."

PHOTO CAPTION

British soldiers train in the desert

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