All perfect praise be to Allah, the Lord of the worlds. I testify that there is none worthy of worship except Allah and that Muhammad is His slave and Messenger.
We have not come across a hadeeth determining the lifespan of this Ummah (nation) and that it will be one thousand and five hundred years. Rather, it is nothing but guessing. The one who spread this idea among the late comers is Ahmad Muhammad Jamaal, the author of the book ‘Umr Ummat-il-Islam (The Lifespan of the Muslim Nation).
He neither mentioned any explicit authentic hadeeth nor any weak hadeeth in regard to determining the lifespan of the Muslim nation; rather, he relied on weak ahaadeeth and other ahaadeeth in which the Prophet gave an example of the work of this Muslim nation compared to the work of the Jews and the Christians, so he deduced from them through mathematical calculations that the lifespan of the Muslim nation is a little bit more than one thousand and four hundred years, which is close to one thousand and five hundred years.
Many scholars refuted his claim, including Shaykh Muhammad ibn Ahmad ibn Ismaa'eel Al-Muqaddim in his book entitled Fiqh Ashraat As-Saa’ah (The Jurisprudence of the Signs of the Hour), and he described Jamaal's book as containing weak and fabricated ahaadeeth and mentioned that it contains many errors by the author.
Moreover, another response to him was specifically written by the author of a book entitled Ar-Radd Al-Ameen ‘ala Kutub ‘Umr Ummat-il-Islam wa Radd As-Sihaam wal Qawl-ul-Mubeen.
Allah knows best.